Undergraduate Research Reports & Masters Dissertations

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    An Assessment of the Effects of weather variability on Malaria Transmission Patterns in North-Western Province, Zambia in the period of 2017 to 2024
    (2026) HIMOONGA, Nchimunya
    Malaria whose transmission is facilitated by Anopheles female mosquitoes has remained a major public health. Global malaria cases have increased in the recent years rising from 229 million in 2019 to 249 million in 2022 with over 95% of cases and deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, Zambia accounts for 1.4% malaria burden with a record of 11 million cases in 2023. Evidence shows that climate change, through shifts in temperature, humidity and rainfall significantly affect malaria transmission by influencing mosquito breeding. Regional impacts, however, particularly in North-western province remain underexplored. The aim of the study was to investigate the impacts of weather variability on malaria transmission patterns in North-western province, Zambia. Malaria incidence data was collected from Ministry of Health while weather variables data was sourced from the Zambia Meteorological Department. Excel was used to manage, clean and analyse the data. Monthly weather variables and malaria cases were summarised using means, standard deviations, and frequencies using STATA software. Pearson’s correlation test was used to measure the strength and direction of the relationship between weather variables and malaria incidence. Negative binomial regression was run to determine the influence of weather variables on malaria incidence. Malaria incidence showed strong seasonality, with peaks during the rainy season and lower levels in the dry months. Precipitation and relative humidity exhibited high seasonal variability, while temperature and wind speed remained relatively stable. Time-series analysis revealed a substantial increase in malaria cases from 2020, with a sharp surge in 2022–2023 followed by stabilization. Although regression and correlation analyses showed weak and statistically non-significant associations between malaria incidence and individual climatic variables, descriptive and temporal patterns suggest that rainfall and humidity are key drivers of seasonal malaria transmission, with temperature and wind speed acting as moderating factors. In conclusion, malaria transmission in North-Western Province is strongly seasonal and primarily influenced by rainfall and humidity, while temperature and wind speed play moderating roles, underscoring the need for integrated climate-informed and socio-economic malaria control strategies.