The Relative Impact of Petroleum Imports on Long Term National Debt. The Zambian Case (1980- 2019).
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Date
2022
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Abstract
The study analyzed the relative impact of the Zambian petroleum imports on its national debt as a decomposed general macroeconomic process. The study established statistically significant long-run national debt-reducing effects resulting from petroleum imports, GDP, gross capital formation, and private consumption expenditures in both the dormant and expansive states of the model. Also revealed are statistically significant long-run national debt-increasing effects resulting from Government expenditures and national exports in both states of the model, with the non-petroleum imports being statistically insignificant and inconclusive. The research, therefore, recommends that; the Government and/or petroleum authorities seek cheaper sources of petroleum, curtail debt-increasing expenditures as well as promote gross capital formation to reinforce the debt-reducing economic multiplier effects for reduced national debt in the long run.
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Petroleum Imports; National Exports; Government Expenditure; Gross Capital Formation; Markov Switch Auto regression Model; National Debt