The Impact of Population Growth on Socio-Economic Development in Zambia

Abstract

The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of population growth on socioeconomic development in Zambia using secondary time series data economic growth, life expectancy, employment and population growth rate. Data was collected from Ministry of Finance, Central Statistics, World Bank for Gross Domestic Product, life expectancy rates, population growth rates and unemployment rates for 58 years i.e. from 1964 to 2021. Population growth is the independent variable while life expectancy, Gross Domestic Product and Employment rates are dependent variables helps to measure socio-economic development. There are many other factors of population growth, however, this study is limited to the three variables. The study uses the vector autocorrelation model with data analysis including co-integration testing, unit root test, lag length, and the Vector Auto-Regressive Model (VAR) whose output is presented. Results from post-diagnostic testing which included the autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, normality tests and stability, were also conducted. Research results indicate that population growth and socio-economic development have a significant relationship. Socio-economic development in this study is represented by Gross domestic product which depicts economic growth, employment rate where when it increases is a sign of a better performing economy and life expectancy. Population growth affects economic growth in terms of Gross Domestic Product increases in developed countries because of it provides more labour supply which is absorbed in the already available infrastructure and industry. On the contrary, population growth in least developed countries has a negative effect on socio-economic development by producing worse outcomes such as a strain on infrastructure because the existing one cannot absorb more numbers. Population growth has been found to lead to competition in the job market with high labour supply thereby reducing wage rates which reduces disposable income for people. The situation leads to high unemployment especially among the youths and women. Population growth strains the available resources which are to improve people ‘s living standards thereby worsening life expectancy. Public infrastructure such as schools become overcrowded compromising the quality of education children receive. Hospitals become overcrowded which becomes a challenge for government to provide quality medical care and provision of essential drugs. The road infrastructure becomes too small leading to unnecessary delays due to traffic. Government should target policies that grow the economy commensurate to growth in the population. Energy crisis is significant when the population increases hence high demand for power and there should be policies that expand the generating capacity of power to match the increasing demands.