A study of the relationship between Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in Zambia

Abstract

The research delves into the intricate relationship between demographic transition variables and economic growth, employing a robust quantitative analysis spanning from 1981 to 2022. Utilizing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model, the study unveils the dynamic nature of these variables over time, offering significant insights into the complex interplay between demographic shifts and economic development. Focusing on critical factors such as GDP growth, working-age population dynamics, population growth, total fertility rate, and death rate, the research provides nuanced understanding of their relationships with economic trajectories. The long-run equation reveals that Death Rate (DR), Population Growth (PG), and Birth Rate (TFR) significantly influence GDP growth, with positive effects for all coefficients except Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which negatively impacts GDP. Interestingly, Working Age Population (WAP) is deemed statistically insignificant in the long run. In the short run, lagged GDP growth negatively influences current GDP, while Death Rate (DR) positively affects short-term GDP growth. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) negatively impacts short-term GDP, and Population Growth (PG) has an insignificant effect. The study's recommendations underscore the significance of human capital development, diversified economic strategies, and targeted family planning and health services for fostering sustainable economic growth in Zambia.