Browsing by Author "CHUNDAMA, Stephen Z"

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    Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth and Financial Markets: The Case of The Zambian Economy.
    (2022) CHUNDAMA, Stephen Z
    The study investigated the impact of decomposed oil price shocks on Zambia’s real aggregate output, its components, and financial markets. A Structural Vector Autoregressive Model was used for short-run analysis and Vector Error Correction Model for long-run analysis. The findings reveal that both global aggregate and oil-specific demand had a significantly positive contemporaneous effect on government spending and real Gross Domestic Product due to financial contagion and volatility spillovers between the oil and copper markets. Also revealed is that oil-specific demand had a positive effect on imports due to the inelasticity of oil demand and wealth-transfer effects which cause increases in the import bill. The oil supply shocks affect government spending, while global aggregate demand was found to have a significantly positive impact on GDP due to welfare gains caused by higher copper prices and FDI in the Mining sector. The study concludes that the impact of decomposed oil price shocks on the Zambian economy varies between the short and long-run as they impact macroeconomic variables differently.